MOSCOW, August 18. /TASS/. The impact of restrictions on exports of Armenia’s products to Russia will become apparent for on Armenia in statistics for the second half of 2026, associate professor at the HSE University Faculty of Economic Sciences Anna Fedyunina told TASS.

"Clearly, the pronounced effect on Armenian exports to Russia will emerge specifically in the second half of 2026, when the restrictions take effect and affect a significant share of seasonal shipments of berries, vegetables and fruit," the expert said.

The restrictions were introduced in stages from late May and throughout June 2026. "They gradually covered tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs and strawberries, followed by stone fruits and grapes, as well as potatoes, dried fruit, certain types of fish products, alcoholic beverages and mineral water," Fedyunina recalled. At the same time, in the first five months of 2026, exports to Russia of goods in categories that were subsequently subject to restrictions increased compared with the same period of 2025.

According to Fedyunina, this trend may be linked to the effect of anticipatory shipments.

According to calculations by the HSE University Center for Structural Policy Research based on UN Comtrade data at FOB prices, Armenian exports totaled $2.86 bln in January-May 2026, down 3.7% from the same period of 2025. "At the same time, the decline accelerated to 11.6% year-on-year in May. Thus, for now, this is more a matter of exports stabilizing after the sharp contraction of 2025 than a new precipitous decline," the expert noted.

Data for the first five months of 2026 also show no sharp decline in Armenian exports to Russia so far. "According to our estimates, Armenian exports to Russia totaled $1.1776 bln in the first five months of 2024, $1.0783 bln in the same period of 2025 and $1.0288 bln in 2026. Thus, compared with 2025, the decline amounted to about 4.6%, while compared with 2024, it was about 12.6%," she concluded.