MOSCOW, June 23. /TASS/. Norilsk Nickel expects global copper production to grow by 0.4% this year and nearly 4% next year, with stable demand and a moderate copper surplus of 0.25 mln metric tons in 2026 and 0.16 mln metric tons in 2027, the Russian mining and metals company said in its global metal market review.

"Supply constraints remain focused on the stages of extraction and concentrate production. Global copper production is expected to increase only moderately: from 23.5 mln metric tons in 2025 to 23.6 mln metric tons in 2026 and 24.5 mln metric tons in 2027," Norilsk Nickel said. Key risks include the recovery rates of the Grasberg mine, slower-than-expected recovery of Kamoa-Kakula mine, infrastructure and logistical constraints in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declining metal grade of ore, and increasing production constraints in Chile and Peru, as well as the availability of sulfuric acid for copper production using the Solvent Extraction and Electrowinning (SX-EW) hydrometallurgical technology.

The refined copper market will remain in moderate surplus in the near term, despite ongoing tensions in the concentrate market, Norilsk Nickel noted. "Demand for refined copper is projected at 28.3 mln metric tons in 2026 (+3%) and 29.3 mln metric tons in 2027 (+3%), while refined copper supply is expected to reach 28.6 mln metric tons in 2026 (+1%) and 29.4 mln metric tons in 2027 (+3%). This implies a surplus of 0.25 mln metric tons in 2026 and 0.16 mln metric tons in 2027," the company noted. Demand for copper has remained stable despite higher energy prices, Norilsk Nickel added.

Copper prices have shown increased volatility over the past six months, rising from a December low of $11,285 per ton to a peak of $14,097 per metric ton in mid-May amid expectations regarding US monetary policy, the situation in the Middle East, and regional imbalances, the company said. The impact of the conflict in the Persian Gulf on the copper market has been predominantly indirect, primarily acting as a macroeconomic risk and a source of pressure on market sentiment. "At the same time, the risks of a decline could become significant if the recently announced peace initiatives are not implemented according to plan," the review indicates.

The most strained link in production remains the copper concentrate segment, Norilsk Nickel said. The concentrate market is expected to still having deficit by approximately 0.8 mln metric tons in 2026, it added.