MOSCOW, June 23. /TASS/. Norilsk Nickel anticipates a balance in the global palladium market in 2026 and expects a deficit of 0.7 million ounces in the platinum market, according to the company's review of the global metals market.

"The palladium market is expected to be balanced in 2026: industrial demand will be 9.1 million ounces against a supply of 9.4 million ounces, while 0.3 million ounces will be accumulated as investment stocks. In 2027, the surplus before accounting for investment demand will be 0.2 million ounces," the mining and metals company said.

The platinum market will remain in a deficit of 0.7 million ounces in 2026, considering investment demand: industrial demand will be 6.9 million ounces against a supply of 7.1 million ounces in 2026, while the accumulation of investment stocks is expected to be at 0.9 million ounces, the company noted. "In 2027, industrial demand for platinum is forecasted to remain at 6.9 million ounces, while supply will increase to 7.2 million ounces, but considering investment demand, the market is likely to remain in a state of deficit," Norilsk Nickel added.

Primary supply has its constraints, Norilsk Nickel informed. According to forecasts, global palladium production will decrease by 2% this year, to 6.1 million ounces, while platinum production will remain at 5.4 million ounces. "In Russia, the temporary decrease in production is associated with Norilsk Nickel working on deposits with lower platinum group metals content, while recovery is expected next year as production shifts to areas with higher metal content and Russian Platinum company will put it Chernogorskoye deposit on stream," it added.

Secondary supply remains below pre-pandemic expectations. Platinum recycling will increase by 3% this year to 1.6 million ounces, and by another 3% next year to 1.7 million ounces. Palladium recycling will increase by 7%, to 3.2 million ounces this year and by 6%, to 3.4 million ounces in 2027.

At the same time, industrial demand for palladium (excluding the automotive and jewelry industries) is expected to grow by 5% this year to 1.6 million ounces, and for platinum by 4% to 2.7 million ounces. The growth will be driven by electronics, artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, datacenters, hard drives, as well as the ongoing expansion of petrochemical and refining capacities in Asia, the company said. Norilsk Nickel also anticipates weakening demand for platinum in the jewelry sector following a sharp increase in Chinese production.