MOSCOW, June 23. /TASS/. Norilsk Nickel sees the global nickel market transitioning to a balance and anticipates a 2% increase in global consumption this year and a significant reduction in the surplus in the market, the company said in its global metals market review.

"On the demand side, we expect that global nickel consumption will grow by 2% year-on-year in 2026," the company noted. "We expect that the surplus in the nickel market will significantly decrease - to about 20,000 metric tons of Ni in 2026, after which it will moderately increase to 55,000 metric tons of Ni in 2027," it noted. Norilsk Nickel expected the surplus in the global nickel market to remain at around 200,000 metric tons in 2026 against the backdrop of continued production growth in Indonesia in its December review.

The company anticipates limited growth in demand for nickel in the stainless steel sector and more stable growth in the sectors of alloys, special steels, and batteries.

"The global nickel market is showing signs of transitioning from surplus to a more balanced state. Indonesia plays a key role in this process, where measures to curb excess supply are beginning to have a noticeable impact on the market," the review indicates. In recent years, one of the key reasons for pressure on prices has been the rapid growth of Indonesian production, but now stricter supply controls in the country are contributing to an improvement in price conditions and an increase in prices from $14,000-16,000 per metric ton in 2025 to $17,000-19,000 per metric ton.

The forecast still heavily depends on the situation in Indonesia, Norilsk Nickel noted. The volume of quotas, the actual level of their utilization, the availability of sulfur, and further regulatory decisions will determine whether the market remains close to balance or returns to a more pronounced surplus. Additionally, there is pressure from the sharp rise in sulfur prices, which have increased from about $300 to over $1,000 per metric ton amid the crisis in the Middle East, the Russian mining and metals company added.