MOSCOW, May 13. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will decline by 418,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 amid the Middle East conflict, according to the agency’s report.

The agency thus worsened its demand forecast by 334,000 bpd compared with its April expectations, when the IEA projected a decline of 84,000 bpd. The oil demand forecast has been lowered by 1.3 mln bpd compared with the estimate made before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the IEA noted.

According to the report, the conflict is radically changing oil consumption both directly and in a broader sense, while the intensifying demand contraction is being reinforced by the sharp rise in oil prices since the start of the war.

The IEA expects the sharpest decline in global oil consumption in the second quarter, by 2.45 mln bpd. Previously, the agency had forecast a decline of 1.5 mln bpd during those three months.

The petrochemical and aviation industries have suffered the most from the conflict, while the impact on motor fuels has so far remained modest, although the adjustment is expected to become much sharper in the second quarter, the IEA said.

According to the forecast, global oil demand in 2026 will amount to 104 mln bpd compared with 104.342 mln bpd in 2025.