MOSCOW, May 12. /TASS/. Global oil prices could fall below pre-crisis levels in the medium term if the conflict in the Middle East drags on, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Vedomosti.

"According to various international agencies, the conflict will cause a decline in global GDP growth rates by 0.3-0.5 percentage points in 2026-2027, possibly even more, depending on its duration. In Southeast Asian countries, which are more dependent on oil imports from the region, the decline could be significantly greater. This means global demand will decline in the medium term, and prices could even fall below pre-conflict levels," he said.

That is why the government’s approach to forecasting oil export prices is rather conservative under the scenario conditions, Novak said, adding that "$59 per barrel in 2026 and $50 in 2027-2029" are projected.