MOSCOW, May 7. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia estimates the decline in Russian GDP in the first quarter of 2026 at 0.5% year-on-year, below the February forecast, the regulator said in a commentary on the medium-term forecast.

According to the regulator, the year-on-year GDP estimate for Russia in the first quarter of 2026 was down 0.5%, which is below the February forecast (+1.6%). The regulator also forecasts GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 at 0.9%.

"GDP dynamics in the first quarter of 2026 (-0.5% year-on-year) were lower than the Bank of Russia's previous forecast. This is partly due to the calendar factor, the impact of which was estimated somewhat lower in the February forecast, as well as unfavorable weather conditions that affected certain industries, including construction. A recovery in economic activity is expected in the second quarter, given the reverse effect of the calendar factor. Current data also point to a revival of economic activity in March-April 2026, current business climate estimates for April approached the levels of the third and fourth quarters of 2025," the regulator noted.