TOKYO, May 7. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC will have only a minor impact on oil prices in the short term as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Keiichi Motohashi, Japanese energy expert and former editor-in-chief of EnergyShift magazine, told TASS.

"The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and targets are being attacked, so in the short term, the impact on oil prices will be limited," he said. However, in the medium term, the expert believes that price declines will depend on Saudi Arabia’s actions. "In the medium term, if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil production recovers, oil prices are expected to decline somewhat, depending on Saudi Arabia’s response (particularly how much output is cut)," the expert added.

That said, he doubts that the risks in the Strait of Hormuz will be mitigated, at least in the short term. "In terms of energy security in the Middle East, the biggest problem is Israel’s presence. The UAE’s increasingly pro-Israel stance will only exacerbate instability in the Middle East, leaving energy security issues unresolved," Motohashi said.

In the long term, he believes, oil prices may decline to some extent due to reduced consumption. "In the long term, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made the world, especially Asia, more conscious of moving away from oil. As electrification advances, oil demand will decline, so oil prices are expected to fall. China’s progress in moving away from fossil fuels is especially noteworthy," the expert noted. On the other hand, Motohashi believes the impact of this factor will be limited by increased demand for military products and the development of artificial intelligence.

The UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ came into force on May 1, 2026. On Sunday, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) also announced the UAE’s exit effective May 1. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC, the UAE's state oil company, has said that the country’s decision to leave the aforementioned organizations meets its sovereign interests and is not directed against other states.