NAIROBI, April 29. /TASS/. African oil producers may face a more unstable outlook following the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC, Semafor reports.

According to the portal, once production quotas are lifted, the United Arab Emirates could increase output by more than 40%, to five million barrels per day. This would intensify competition in markets supplied by higher-cost producers, including countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The immediate impact may be limited, but over time the weakening of OPEC, along with rising UAE output, could disrupt the oil balance underpinning the economies of major African producers such as Nigeria and Angola, the report notes. Smaller producers, including Equatorial Guinea and South Sudan, are particularly vulnerable due to their limited ability to withstand a sustained decline in prices.

The economies of Algeria, which relies more on gas, and Libya, which has been temporarily exempted from OPEC quotas, may prove more resilient, Semafor adds. For Nigeria, growing ambitions in oil refining could offset some losses in the upstream sector.

Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. At the same time, the UAE said it remains committed to stabilizing the global fuel market and will base its production policy on global supply and demand, according to the report.