MOSCOW, April 29. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC and OPEC+ has become a turning point in the global oil market following the onset of the Middle East crisis. Despite an initial decline in prices, such a move could paradoxically push oil prices higher in the medium term for a certain period, Marat Zembatov, director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research at the Higher School of Economics’ Institute of Public Administration, told TASS.

"It looks like the first major institutional shift in the oil market since the beginning of the Iran crisis. Abu Dhabi’s official formula is highly rational: a revision of production policy, increased domestic investment in the energy sector, a desire to respond flexibly to demand, and to bring additional volumes to market ‘gradually and responsibly,’ as stated in the release by the state news agency WAM," Zembatov said. "At the same time, news of the UAE’s exit from OPEC and OPEC+ may paradoxically push prices higher in the medium term. This is because the stability of international structures is associated with market stability, and the decision of a major player to exit psychologically calls both into question," he added.

The expert believes that the UAE leadership may have concluded that the OPEC+ format no longer corresponds to the "changed reality, which is more network-based than cartel-like in nature."

Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026. According to WAM, the UAE’s decision is in line with the country’s long-term economic strategy.