TUNIS, April 29. /TASS/. The decision of the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC marks the culmination of a long-running conflict with Saudi Arabia over disagreements on oil prices and production quotas, Ahmed Mustafa, the Director of the Cairo-based Asia Center for Studies and Translation, told TASS.

"The rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh has simmered since 2020," the expert said. "Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 per barrel," while "the UAE break-even point is at about $50 [per barrel]," Mustafa noted. "OPEC quotas kept the country’s production much lower than its desired level" of five mln barrels daily by 2027, although "Abu Dhabi invested $150 bln into production increase," he noted. "The UAE publicly declined to renew production constraints on Saudi Arabia’s terms as early as in July 2021," which nearly derailed the OPEC+ deal, the expert noted. "Western sources recorded growing strain" by 2025 and "Riyadh was concerned that the exit card would be eventually played," Mustafa said.

"Quotas alone cannot explain the timing of the decision," the expert continued. The UAE’s move to leave OPEC was made amid the situation around the Hormuz Strait. "The crisis provoked the largest failure in supplies since the 1970s," Mustafa noted. "Persian Gulf countries slashed production by 7.5 mln barrels daily in March," the expert said. Implications for the UAE were particularly sensitive as production plummeted by 44% to 1.9 mln barrels of oil per day and "230 loaded tankers ended up blocked in the Persian Gulf," he noted.

OPEC quotas in such an environment "became not merely limiting but essentially irrelevant," the expert added.

On Tuesday, the UAE state agency WAM said the country would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1, 2026.