NEW DELHI, April 29. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ may not lead to an immediate fall in oil prices but is likely to increase volatility and weaken the long-term price stability provided by the cartel, according to a report by the Mumbai-based ASK Wealth Advisors investment firm.

"The near-term oil price effect is not straightforward and investors should resist simple directional conclusions. In a market already shaped by post-Hormuz supply disruptions, geopolitical risk premia, and shipping vulnerability, the announcement may not immediately push prices lower," the report said.

The UAE is unlikely to flood the market with excess supply, as it would risk damaging long-term customer relationships and market stability, according to Indian analysts. Instead, the country may gradually increase production closer to its capacity levels. This could raise concerns about whether OPEC+ can maintain discipline without one of its key members and whether Saudi Arabia would have to take on a larger share of production cuts to stabilize the market.

According to the report, this shift may lead to a sustained discount on future OPEC agreements, as market participants begin to question the effectiveness and credibility of coordinated supply actions.

Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. The country assured though that it shares the desire to stabilize the global fuel market. Its oil production policy will take into account global supply and demand, according to the WAM publication.