NEW DELHI, April 29. /TASS/. The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC reflects changes in the global energy landscape toward strengthening the role of more flexible, market-oriented mechanisms, Ambassador Ajai Malhotra, Distinguished Fellow at TERI (the Energy and Resources Institute) and former Indian Ambassador to Russia, told TASS.

"The UAE’s exit from OPEC marks a significant moment in the evolution of global energy governance. OPEC has long functioned as a central coordinating mechanism in oil markets, even as its influence has been diluted by non-OPEC producers, the rise of US shale production, and the increasing role of OPEC+ partners like Russia in coordinating supply," he said.

According to Malhotra, a major, "sophisticated producer like the UAE leaving OPEC, signals a slow shift from cartel-based coordination and discipline towards more decentralized, market-driven, bilateral arrangements. The expert noted that "the era of rigid producer blocs seems to be giving way to "multi-alignment" in energy, with producers and consumers looking to partner in mutual interest-based energy alignments, rather than adhering to rigid blocs."

Commenting on possible fragmentation within OPEC, the expert said that this is less about a split and more about a gradual global shift toward the formation of a "looser, more transactional energy order." "Producers are increasingly seeking autonomy to respond to market conditions, invest in capacity, and secure long-term commitments through bilateral partnerships," he added.

In the analyst’s view, this opens up additional opportunities for major importing countries such as India to negotiate more favorable supply terms. "But it also demands greater agility in managing risk in a less coordinated global system," he added.

Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026. The UAE also assured that it shares the goal of stabilizing the global fuel market. Oil production policy will take into account global supply and demand, the WAM report said.