MOSCOW, April 24. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia has reduced its key rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 14.5% per annum, the regulator stated in a press release following its board of directors meeting.

TASS has collected the main facts about the decision.

Central Bank’s decision

- The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% per annum, as analysts unanimously predicted in the consensus forecast compiled by TASS.

- Domestic demand dynamics have roughly corresponded to the economy’s capacity to ramp up supply of goods and services, according to the regulator’s press release.

- Meanwhile, measures of underlying price growth have not yet decreased and remain in the range of 4-5% in annualized terms, as estimated by the Bank of Russia.

- There is still significant uncertainty regarding the external environment and fiscal policy parameters, the press release said.

Key rate forecast

- The Bank of Russia has narrowed its forecast corridor for the average key rate through the end of 2026 from 13.5-14.5% to 14-14.5%.

- Moreover, the average key rate is currently projected at 8-10% in 2027 instead of the previously expected 8-9%, according to the Central Bank.

- The outlook for 2028 was maintained at 7.5-8.5%.

State of Russian economy and inflation

- The Russian economy slowed in Q1 2026, in part due to the adjustment to the earlier tax changes, with investment activity also remaining subdued, according to the press release.

- Expectations for future inflation remain elevated, which may impede a sustainable slowdown in inflation, the regulator noted.

- According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will decline to 4.5-5.5% in 2026. Underlying inflation will be close to 4% in the second half of this year, staying on target in 2027 and beyond.

- As of April 20, 2026, annual inflation stood at 5.7%, according to the Central Bank.

Unemployment in Russia

- The labor market tightness is gradually decreasing, with unemployment remaining at historical lows, the regulator said in its press release.

Oil price projection

- The Bank of Russia sharply raised its forecast for oil prices for tax purposes in 2026 - from $45 to $65 per barrel.

Lending

- The Central Bank changed its forecast for growth in bank lending to companies by the end of 2026 from 7-12% to 7-11%. It also narrowed the corridor for growth in mortgage lending from 6-11% to 6-10%.

Ruble’s reaction

- The ruble’s exchange rate was almost flat during the trading session on the Moscow Exchange following the decision of the Bank of Russia, according to trading data.

- In particular, the yuan’s exchange rate was down by 3.45 kopecks at 11.0355 rubles before the regulator’s decision was announced, and it extended losses slightly after the decision’s announcement to 11.02 rubles (-5 kopecks).

MOEX Index

- The MOEX Index has moved to negative territory amid the Central Bank’s decision, according to trading platform data.

- In particular, before the regulator’s decision was published, the MOEX Index was up by 0.21% at 2,777.36 points.

- After the decision’s publication, the MOEX was down by 0.36% at 2,761.41 points. Later it extended losses to 2,752.85 points (-0.67%), while the RTS Index was down by 0.67% at 1,158.83 points.

- Russia’s stock market went up as the main trading session started on Friday as the MOEX and RTS indices added 0.14% to 2,775.33 and 1,163.97 points, respectively.