MOSCOW, April 13. /TASS/. The continuation of the crisis in the Middle East threatens to create 45 mln more starving people, with global GDP potentially losing 2%, said Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexander Maslennikov in a commentary released by the Security Council’s press service.

The conflict in the region creates risks to Russia’s food security too, he noted.

TASS has gathered the key statements made by the Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council.

Global hunger risks

The continued crisis in the Middle East will place tens of millions of people worldwide on starvation’s doorstep: "In the long term, total losses in global markets could amount to between 0.5% and 2% of global GDP, which is equivalent to losses of between $0.7 and $2.2 trillion, while the number of starving people in the world could increase by 45 mln to a record 673 mln people."

If the existing trends in the Middle East conflict continue until summer, the price of food will go through the roof: "The continuation of the crisis in the Middle East threatens global food security. Experts predict that if the conflict continues until early summer the yield of key agricultural crops could decline by 50% due to a shortage of fertilizers, which will respectively lead to the largest surge in global food inflation in recent years."

Threat to Russia’s food security

External forces may attempt to artificially undermine Russia’s food security amid the Middle East conflict: "Against the backdrop of the further development of the Middle East conflict, attempts by destructive external forces to artificially undermine Russia’s domestic food security cannot be ruled out."

The conflict around Iran creates risks to Russia’s food security, but also opens up prospects for agricultural producers: "The current situation, on the one hand, creates risks for the food security of the Russian Federation, and on the other, opens up long-term prospects for Russian agricultural producers."

Threat to European farmers

Europe finds itself in a vulnerable position, "as it is simultaneously faced with the disappearance of traditional imports from the Persian Gulf and the inability to increase its own fertilizer production due to rising gas prices."

The conflict in the Middle East "to varying degrees affects all sectors of the agricultural sector."

The continued crisis in the Middle East leaves corn producers and high-tech European greenhouse businesses most vulnerable in the agricultural sector: "The structure of rising costs makes certain crops and agricultural sectors particularly vulnerable. Specifically, corn producers could suffer the greatest losses. The second area of vulnerability is high-tech greenhouse farms, primarily in Northern Europe, which risks being left without domestically produced fresh vegetables, while replacing domestic production with imports from Turkey or North Africa is constrained by expensive logistics."

Due to events in the Middle East, European farmers are forced to switch to fertilizers from North Africa, North America, and Russia: "European traders and farmers are forced to switch to alternative sources, including North Africa, North America, and Russia."

Situation in Middle East

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will pose a threat to food security for countries in the region: "According to preliminary estimates, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for three months or more, countries in the region will face a threat to food security."

The risks primarily concern Saudi Arabia, "which receives 70% of its food imports via this maritime route," Jordan, "which is also experiencing rising food prices that could potentially spiral," and Egypt, which "has seen a significant decline in foreign exchange revenues from the Suez Canal."