MOSCOW, April 7. /TASS/. Experts at Kept predict that the price of rough and polished diamonds will recover in 2026 despite the current fall in diamond prices caused by US trade tariffs and geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the consultancy said in a study it published (obtained by TASS).

"Despite all the events, industry players see signs of potential recovery for the diamond industry, with 2026 possibly becoming a breakthrough year. Among the factors capable of redirecting the trend towards growth are investment demand for large stones, contracting output by leading players, and depleting deposits, as well as advertising campaigns aimed at reviving interest in natural stones," the document said.

Global diamond prices fell by 9.7% in Q4 2025 year-on-year, and by 4.4% quarter-on-quarter, the company said.

Experts noted the key negative factor being the US’ 50% trade tariffs on India, which have led to a manifold contraction in exports of Indian diamonds to the US market. Despite a subsequent reduction in tariffs to 10%, the situation remains uncertain due to ongoing fluctuations in Washington's trade policy.

"Currently, the situation in the Middle East and supply difficulties are squeezing the market. India imports around 70% of diamonds from the UAE and Israel and exports 20% of diamond products there. Experts warn all these factors could lead to a slowdown in activity across the rough and polished diamonds industry," according to the study.

Moreover, the experts called India’s introduction of a new standard according to which only a natural stone can be officially called a diamond a kind of landmark event in 2026.