Conflict over Iran could lead to rise of ‘petroyuan’ — Deutsche Bank report

Business & Economy March 25, 16:12

The report notes that the American "security umbrella" has faced serious challenges amid attacks on American bases, oil fields, and infrastructure in the Middle East

BERLIN, March 25. /TASS/. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could weaken the dollar's role in global energy trade and lead to the rise of a "petroyuan," according to a report prepared by the research institute of Germany's Deutsche Bank.

"The conflict [in Iran] could be a catalyst for the erosion of petrodollar dominance and usher in the era of the petroyuan," the report, published Tuesday, noted.

The report's author cites reports in Western and Asian media that Iran is allegedly negotiating with eight countries to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on condition that they pay in yuan.

The report also notes that the American "security umbrella" has faced serious challenges amid attacks on American bases, oil fields, and infrastructure in the Middle East. The greatest damage is said to have been inflicted on traditional US allies - European countries, Japan, and South Korea, which are major importers of energy transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, tankers bound for countries like China and India were able to traverse the waterway thanks to diplomatic efforts based on their bilateral relations with Iran, rather than through "US-led maritime security."

If global oil consumption declines over the long term, and the Gulf states move closer to Asian countries in their trade and investment relations and begin to reduce the share of the US dollar in energy payments, this could have a significant impact on the dollar's use in global trade and savings.

As the report stresses, "a world that becomes more self-sufficient in defense and energy would also be a world that holds less."

Such assets will increasingly be needed for domestic needs rather than for long-term storage, and "the surplus itself may shrink and accumulate in dollars to a lesser extent," which will be another long-term negative factor for the US dollar.

As the report's author points out, the reason why oil prices are set in dollars dates back to the 1974 agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia. This agreement was key in establishing the dollar as the global reserve currency. Saudi Arabia then agreed to price its oil exports in US dollars and invest surplus crude in US Treasury bonds. In exchange, Washington provided security guarantees and military protection. Other Gulf states followed Saudi Arabia's example.

"The huge strategic importance of the Middle East for the dollar's role as the world’s reserve currency should not be underestimated. The current conflict may be the perfect storm for the petrodollar," the report's author concludes.

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