ALMATY, March 17. /TASS/. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to oil prices remaining in the range of $75-85 per barrel in 2026, according to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) March macroeconomic review.

"Oil prices in 2026 could be higher than in 2025, in the range of $75-85 per barrel. According to our estimates, this creates the risk of a slowdown in global GDP growth of around 0.3-0.5 percentage points in 2026. That said, disruptions to logistics routes, increased volatility in financial markets, and investment flows could exacerbate the negative consequences," said EDB analysts as they assessed the halt of transit in the Strait of Hormuz. They added that "around 25% of global oil supplies and about 20% of liquefied gas supplies" pass through the strait.

"The halt of transit led to a sharp rise in prices of oil (+30%) and gas (+55%) by mid-March (compared to the end of February). This created conditions for accelerating global inflation, both due to rising prices and the increased complexity and cost of logistics. In such a situation, central banks may be forced to maintain tight monetary conditions longer or even return to raising rates," the bank said.

The Almaty-headquartered Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution investing in Eurasia to expand economic ties and promote the comprehensive development of its member countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In 2025, Uzbekistan joined the bank.