MOSCOW, March 13. /TASS/. The Russian economy has passed the sanctions stress test, having adjusted to the crisis, and it is now facing a choice of future development path. The goal for the current year is to revive investment without driving up inflation, according to experts at the Laboratory for Structural Research of the Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (obtained by TASS).

"The Russian economy has passed the stress test of sanctions and crisis adjustment, but now it is facing a choice of development trajectory. The goal for 2026 is to revive investment without reigniting inflation," experts said.

They believe this requires a smooth reversal of monetary policy. The Bank of Russia should begin a cycle of key rate reductions in the second half of 2026, with inflation sustainably anchored near the target level.

"Maintaining a tight monetary policy for too long will perpetuate the investment pause and lead to stagnation," analysts noted.

If monetary policy is eased in a timely manner and structural reforms are launched, a growth trajectory of 1.5-2.5% per year could be achieved by 2027, according to research. Investments will begin to recover in the second half of 2026, with the manufacturing industry and import substitution in high-tech sectors becoming the main growth drivers.

"If the structural agenda is successfully implemented, the economy could achieve sustainable long-term growth rates of 2.5-3%, consistent with its potential. Otherwise, there is a risk of getting stuck in a 0.5-1.5% range, with periodic liquidity crises," experts said.