MOSCOW, March 4. /TASS/. Russian oil deliveries to India may total around 1.5 mln barrels per day (mbd) or more, reaching the highest figures of 2024-2025 amid the crisis in the Middle East, partner at Kept, head of the oil and gas services practice Maxim Malkov told TASS.

Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow saw increased demand for its oil from India for its subsequent processing.

According to Malkin, boosting purchases of Russian oil by India looks an increasingly probable scenario for two reasons: first, India being sensitive to energy prices for imports, and second, physical shortage of oil due to disrupted supplies from the Middle East, with India having fairly low own reserves.

"Supply volumes may reach the highest figures of 2024-2025, or around 1.5 mbd and even higher if Russian oil companies are able to quickly boost drilling volumes to meet the increased demand," he said.

Finam Financial Group’s analyst Sergey Kaufman also noted that in the event of a protracted conflict in the Middle East with intensified disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the US may be interested in allowing more Russian oil into India and overall on the global market to avoid excessively raising prices. "In such a scenario, supplies of Russian oil to India may return to 1.5-2 mbd, while stocks on water accumulated over the past few months may be sold," he said. Supplies of Russian oil to India due to sanctions against Russian companies and US pressure on India have dropped to almost 1 mbd after keeping around 1.5-2 mbd for a long time, Kaufman added.

According to the OPEC report, Russia remained India’s largest oil supplier in December 2025, with exports there amounting to around 1.3 mbd.

On March 2, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, elite units of the Iranian Armed Forces) threatened to burn any tanker attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The statement was made by Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, an adviser to the IRGC commander.

The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power. As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.