MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The United States’ invasion of Iran could have a multi-layered impact on the global economy and trade. Moreover, the inevitable disruption of logistics chains puts China, India, Europe, and Gulf countries under pressure, director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Yulia Davydova told TASS.

"Primarily it affects oil markets and energy security. One can forecast a sharp rise in oil prices, which can jump to an amount above $100 a barrel," she said. Accordingly, it will put pressure on all energy-dependent sectors such as chemical and metals industries.

"The disruption of logistics chains due to large-scale military actions is inevitable, which puts China, India, Europe, Gulf countries (Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) under pressure. However, unlike Europe, India and China have the opportunity to refocus on the Russian market. Negative macroeconomic effects are also possible in the future: rising inflation and declining GDP in import-dependent countries, including the US, which will also be hit by shock energy prices," Davydova explained.

Speaking about possible scenarios around the Strait of Hormuz, she stressed that it is one of the most vulnerable points of the global energy system, adding that it accounts for about 30% of the world’s offshore oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"This is a major transport route for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait. Closing the strait immediately will give a sharp spike in oil prices, causing supply shortages, as the alternative options, theoretically, can only ensure a third of supplies that go through the strait. Gas price growth in Europe is also possible," the expert said. "A long-term closure of the strait, even for 2-4 months, is capable of causing not just a spike in oil and gas prices, but a structural energy crisis, leading to a recession in developed countries that get oil and gas from Persian countries," she added.

In the first place Davydova mentioned China and the countries of the European Union. The situation may trigger rising inflation in import-dependent countries (euro, yen, and yuan) but will strengthen the ruble and Saudi riyal at the expense of rising oil prices.

"Perhaps the dollar will strengthen as well as demand for safe assets will grow. Demand for gold and cryptocurrency will also increase. The possibility of a long-term closure of the strait exists, but it is influenced by many factors. First, how long the US and Israeli operation in Iran will last. Secondly, how the situation in the Middle East will develop in general, the extent to which other actors will be involved in the war. Thirdly, whether the parties involved will be prepared to take military action to unblock the strait," she said.

Yury Mavashev, an Orientalist and lecturer at the Department of World Politics and World Economy at the RANEPA Institute of Management, pointed out that with the destruction of Iran as an integral state, streams of refugees will flow. "We are already seeing that the allies' conflict with Iran has gone far beyond it, affecting Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Jordan and other countries and regions," he said.