MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. Disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Persian Gulf countries due to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even for just a couple of months, could push European gas prices above $600 per 1,000 cubic meters, analyst at Finam Financial Group Sergey Kaufman told TASS.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key oil and gas export route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and further with the Indian Ocean, through which a significant share of global oil and LNG supplies passes. The Financial Times reported earlier that the flow of large vessels through the Strait of Hormuz had virtually dried up.

"In our view, even a 1-2-month closure of the strait could raise European gas prices to $600 per 1,000 cubic meters, as competition for available volumes would increase significantly," Kaufman said. A closure would affect more than 20% of global LNG exports, but Asian countries (China, South Korea, India, Taiwan) would suffer more from such a move, as they account for over 80% of Qatar’s LNG exports, the expert noted. He also did not rule out direct Iranian attacks on production facilities in Qatar and the UAE.

Meanwhile, European gas prices have already exceeded $500 amid Qatar’s suspension of LNG production due to Iranian airstrikes.

"First and foremost, the current conflict could affect the global gas market through potential difficulties for Qatar, which ranks among the top three LNG exporters. Qatar ships its LNG through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risks of its closure are the main factor behind today’s price surge. The UAE is also a less significant LNG exporter. In addition, the current developments may suspend Israeli gas exports to Egypt and Iranian gas exports to Turkey," Kaufman emphasized.

At the same time, much will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict, though a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, the Finam analyst believes. Such a step would turn even countries friendly toward Iran (for example, China) and receiving its hydrocarbons via this route against it.

The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.

As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.