Middle East escalation may have positive effect on ruble — expert
The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting global oil supply chains due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 10-20% of global oil supplies pass, contributing to higher crude prices, head of the analytical department at Tsifra Broker Natalia Pyrieva said
MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The escalation in the Middle East may have a positive impact on the ruble’s exchange rate against global currencies amid rising oil prices, head of the analytical department at Tsifra Broker Natalia Pyrieva told TASS.
According to her, the conflict in the Middle East is disrupting global oil supply chains due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 10-20% of global oil supplies pass, contributing to higher crude prices. At the same time, this may lead to increased exports of Russian oil.
"Thus, the situation in the Middle East is having a positive effect on the ruble. Nevertheless, given the expected tightening of the fiscal rule and a reduction in operations by the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Russia, we do not anticipate any pronounced fluctuations in the national currency, aside from potential spikes in volatility driven by news," she added.
Tsifra Broker expects the ruble to remain consolidated in the range of 76-80 per US dollar.
At the same time, BCS World of Investments provided TASS with a forecast under which, after a short-term pullback in foreign currencies, a medium-term recovery is expected with spring targets of 80 rubles per dollar, 95 rubles per euro, and 11.5 rubles per yuan; in the longer term — 85 rubles per dollar, 100 rubles per euro, and 12 rubles per yuan, respectively.
The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.
As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.