MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The price of Brent crude may exceed $100 per barrel amid the conflict in the Middle East, several experts surveyed by TASS said.

The May 2026 Brent futures contract on the London-based ICE exchange was up 7.85% at $78.59 per barrel, while the April 2026 WTI futures contract stood at $71.97 per barrel (+7.39%), according to trading data as of 9:58 a.m. Moscow time.

"The price per barrel is highly volatile and reacts to developments in the conflict. In our estimates from late February to early March, there was a high risk of Brent jumping to $80 — the risk premium has expanded, and technically there is a clear uptrend, with local targets already achieved. It is difficult to make a long-term forecast, but if the (Strait of Hormuz — TASS) is blocked, the barrel could temporarily surge into triple-digit territory," stock market expert at BCS World of Investments Mikhail Zeltser said.

At the same time, according to Alexey Mikheyev, investment strategist at VTB My Investments, if the conflict were suddenly resolved under current conditions, the global oil market balance would not be significantly affected. In that case, the entire $20 risk premium in oil prices would quickly disappear, as happened in the summer of 2025, when Brent fell from $80 to $65 in two days.

"Twenty percent of the world’s oil production passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and traffic through it has declined significantly. However, if, for example, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz were to decrease by half, this would create a short-term supply deficit of 10 mln barrels per day. It should be borne in mind that the global oil market is in substantial surplus, with production exceeding demand by 2 mln barrels per day, and significant oil inventories accumulated at sea. In addition, OPEC+ countries decided over the weekend to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. Therefore, in the short term, an oil shock is unlikely," the expert emphasized.

He also noted that if the oil infrastructure of countries in the region is not damaged, oil prices will ultimately return to $60 once geopolitical tensions subside. Until then, significant volatility in oil prices is likely, and further increases cannot be ruled out.

The United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran on February 28. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, were struck. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. At the same time, US leadership openly called on the Iranian population to rise up against their government and seize power.

As a result of the strikes, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other senior figures in the leadership of the Islamic Republic were killed.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a retaliatory operation, targeting sites in Israel. US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also hit.