MOSCOW, February 28. /TASS/. The US and Israeli military operation against Iran could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, including on the American market. Such a development carries domestic political risks for US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Andrey Koshkin told TASS.

"Trump weighed the reaction inside the United States and counted on a positive image that he was supposed to gain from a possible 'small victorious war' in Iran. There is not much time left until the midterm congressional elections [in November 2026]. Naturally, there are quite a few risks here. If gasoline prices rise, it is not yet clear how all this will end for Trump," the expert noted.

At the same time, he said, the US president remains confident that "everything will end well" for him. "Prices have moved upward, and there are assumptions that the conflict affecting the Persian Gulf will influence market conditions. Everyone predicts that a war with Iran will have an impact on the global economy," the expert said. "But at the same time, Trump is counting on US strategic reserves to offset these fluctuations. He sees a window of opportunity for himself now — and would like to use it," he added.

The US and Israel have launched a military operation against Iran. Major Iranian cities, including Tehran, have been hit. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, the Iranian Armed Forces’ elite unit) announced a large-scale retaliatory operation. There were reports of missiles and drones being launched from Iran. According to media, US military bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia were also targeted.