MOSCOW, February 26. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia estimated inflation in the country at the level of 5.6% as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2025 and forecasted it to reach 6.3% in the first quarter of this year.

"Inflation evolved below the October forecast and totaled 5.6% as of 2025 year-end. This is related to low price growth rates observed for a number of volatile components, fruits and vegetables in the first instance, and the scale of VAT transfer to prices was small in December," the regulator said. "However, the impact of these factors in the price dynamics reversed in early 2026. Redistribution of inflation took place from the end of 2025 to early 2026," the Central Bank noted.

The regulator expects inflation to return to 4% in terms of its stable components in the second half of 2026.

"The monetary policy pursued will make it possible to return inflation as regards its stable components to 4% in the second half of 2026," the Central Bank added.