LONDON, February 26. /TASS/. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its 2026 outlook on economic growth in countries where it implements programs to 3.6%.

According to the bank's report, economic growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2025. In both cases, the forecast was upgraded by 0.2 percentage points (pp). In 2027, analysts at the London-headquartered bank expect average GDP growth in the region's countries to reach 3.7%.

The report traditionally provides an analysis of the situation by region and country. For example, average growth rates in the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) will be 6.9% in 2025, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than expected. The growth forecast is 5.6% for 2026, and 5.3% for 2027.

In Central European countries and the Baltic states (Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Estonia), GDP growth is expected at 2.6% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 2.7% in 2027.

In Southeastern Europe (Bulgaria and Romania), average growth rates will equal 1.4% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026, and 2.3% in 2027. Greece, which was previously part of this region, will no longer be an EBRD country of operations as of 1 January 2026. Growth here has been downgraded by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 (2.1%) and 2026 (2%). The forecast for 2027 is a slowdown to 1.6%.

In the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia), the bank expects economic growth at 3.4% last year, 4.2% in 2026, and 4.1% next year.

The EBRD forecasts GDP growth in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, and the unrecognized Kosovo region) to decline by 0.2 percentage points in 2025 to 2.5%. Economic growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. Turkey's GDP is expected to gain 3.7% this year (an increase of 0.6 percentage points). The forecast for 2026 has also been improved to 4%, and growth in 2027 is expected to be even more significant - 4.5%.

The forecast for Belarus has been lowered to 1.3% in 2025 (minus 0.4 percentage points), and to 1.3% in 2026 (minus 1 percentage point). Growth in 2027 is expected at 1.5%.

Significant downside risks are associated with persisting economic sanctions and dependence on the Russian economy, according to the report.

The EBRD estimates that GDP in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) will grow by 2.7% this year (minus 0.3 percentage points). In 2026, the bank predicts an even more pronounced decline - by 1.5 percentage points to 2.9%. The 2027 projection is 3.9%.

The most noticeable downward revisions to the growth forecast for 2026 in this region are in Ukraine (down 2.5 percentage points to 2.5%), Moldova (down 0.8 percentage points to 3%), and Azerbaijan (down 0.5 percentage points to 2%). The largest growth is expected in Georgia (7.5% in 2025, 5.5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027), and Armenia (6% in 2025, 5.5% each in 2026 and 2027).