MOSCOW, February 19. /TASS/. Europe risks failing to meet its target of filling underground gas storage (UGS) facilities to 90% by November 2026, which in turn will trigger a new spike in gas prices and a crisis in countries next winter, Anastasia Levchenko, Researcher at the Gaidar Institute's Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department, told TASS.

According to TASS calculations based on data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), net withdrawal (the net difference between the volume withdrawn and injected) of gas from UGS facilities in Europe since the start of the heating season has exceeded 55 bln cubic meters (bcm), meaning that EU countries have exhausted all the gas injected into UGS facilities in the summer and have begun withdrawing from older reserves.

"If a lack of snow forces Europe to burn more gas to generate electricity this summer, this creates the risk that Europe will not meet its target of filling UGS facilities to 90% by November 2026, which will result in a new price surge and a crisis next winter," the expert said.

Levchenko believes the statistics indicate that EU countries have not only used up the entire volume injected last summer but have also begun drawing from strategic reserves. "This winter's gas withdrawal rate was the highest in the past five years. As of mid-February, EU storage facilities were only 34% full, significantly below the historical average of 50-58% for this period," she explained.

Reasons

Such gas consumption in the EU is the result of multiple factors, the expert said. One is weather conditions, as the prolonged cold spell in Northern and Central Europe since January 2026 has caused a sharp rise in heating demand.

"Moreover, Arctic weather in the US at the end of January caused a 20% drop in LNG production, reducing supply from Europe's largest supplier, while high spot prices made immediate LNG imports less profitable than using gas already in storage," she noted.

The situation was also affected by worsening technical constraints, the expert added. "The critical threshold is reached when gas levels in storage facilities fall below 20%. In large German porous storage facilities, such as Rehden, the gas withdrawal rate declines nonlinearly at low pressure," she said, adding that this could lead to an inability to quickly meet peak demand on the coldest days, even if gas is still physically in the system.

If the current withdrawal rate of 1.5-1.7 TWh per day persists, Germany's reserves could be exhausted in 35-40 days, Levchenko said.

Consequences

The situation is already having a significant negative effect on the European economy: gas prices have risen by over 30% since the start of the year, putting pressure on energy-intensive industries and consumers, the expert noted. She added that if reserves fall below a critical level while cold weather continues, gas grid operators will likely be forced to activate interruptible contracts, prioritizing shutdowns at large industrial facilities to protect households and critical infrastructure.

Summer injection is also at risk as high prices reduce the economic incentive to pump gas into storage facilities. "Analysts predict that by the end of winter, reserves could fall by 20%. To meet the EU's 90% target by November, Europe will need record LNG imports this summer - over 185 bln cubic meters, according to IEA forecasts," the expert said, adding that this is putting enormous pressure on the global market and keeping prices high.

By spring, the situation could worsen due to abnormally low snow cover in the Alps this winter, posing risks to hydroelectric generation in Austria and Italy, which could further increase demand for gas in the power sector. "In the Alps, snow acts as a natural reservoir. In winter, water is stored in the mountains as snow, and hydro plants operate using previously accumulated water. In spring and early summer, the snow melts, feeding rivers and filling reservoirs, providing a strong influx for electricity generation," Levchenko explained.

According to Meteo Switzerland, as of January 2026, the country has approximately 60% less snow than usual for this time of year, she noted. "In the cantons of Graubunden and the Bernese Oberland, snow levels are only 30-60% of normal," the expert said, concluding that Europe faces serious challenges for summer gas injection into storage facilities.