LONDON, January 29. /TASS/. International energy markets consider US military action against Iran to be a highly probable scenario, Jorge Leon, the Senior Vice President and the Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, told TASS in a comment.

"Oil markets are rapidly repricing geopolitical risk as the probability of direct US action against Iran rises. The speed of the oil price reaction suggests markets see US military action against Iran as a real, near-term risk," Leon said.

The current situation in the oil markets is close to the one last summer ahead of the conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, the expert said. "In the two days preceding the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities during that episode, oil prices rose by approximately $3.7 per barrel, as markets rapidly priced in the risk of escalation and potential supply disruption," Leon noted.

"The current price trajectory shows a comparable – and slightly stronger – reaction. Oil prices have increased by around $4.3 per barrel since strong rumors of a renewed US attack on Iran began circulating a few days ago, suggesting markets are assigning a similar, if not higher, probability to near-term military action and associated supply risks," the expert stressed.

In the meantime, the current oil price hike cannot be attributed to "geopolitical risk alone," Leon said. "A cold snap in the US has also contributed to upward price pressure by temporarily disrupting domestic oil production and logistics," he added.