MOSCOW, January 29. /TASS/. Oil prices are unlikely to rise sharply in the near future amid the situation with Iran; even in the event of a military operation they will not reach $100 per barrel, experts interviewed by TASS believe.

"We believe the situation around Iran is already impacting global oil prices. Since the beginning of 2026, the spot price of Brent crude has increased by more than 10%. That said, the price also includes market concerns about a possible threat to the Strait of Hormuz," Finam’s analyst Nikolay Dudchenko said.

According to Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, it's precisely US President Donald Trump's geopolitical premium that's supporting oil prices at $68-70 per barrel. "We're not seeing a sharper price rise because the ‘Iranian factor’ has been discussed so long and so actively that the market has become accustomed to it," he explained. "If some form of military operation occurs, the price movement range, in my opinion, will be between $65 and $90. All alarmist scenarios predicting a price surge to $100-105, as before, are completely unfounded and remain mere speculation," Belogoryev noted.

Moreover, the rise in oil prices is being hindered by the surplus of supply on the market, the expert said, adding that for OPEC+ participants, a slight drop in Iranian production will be rather good news. "No one, by and large, will be upset if some Iranian exports and production disappear from the market as it won't lead to a shortage but will somewhat balance the situation. Even if it's only a million barrels per day (and more is unlikely), the market is much more prepared for it than it was in June. Therefore, the reaction will be even calmer," he stated.

Analysts also say it's unlikely that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. "About 20 mln barrels per day, or about 20% of global oil demand, move through the strait, a fairly significant volume. Closing the strait would significantly increase oil prices, but we believe the likelihood of this happening is still quite low," Dudchenko said.

Trump said earlier that a massive armada of US Navy ships was heading toward Iran. He expressed hope that Tehran would sit down at the negotiating table and reach a deal that would include a complete abolition of nuclear weapons.