MOSCOW, January 28. /TASS/. A potential collapse in the cryptocurrency market, a possible large-scale "tanker war," and a crisis in the European Union could become "black swan" events for the global economy in 2026, according to an analytical review by the Roscongress Foundation.

The report noted that such events are, by definition, unpredictable but carry significant economic consequences.

Among the potential "black swans," the authors cited a possible crash in the cryptocurrency market, though it currently appears unlikely. "Forecasts for bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, point to the continuation of a bullish trend. An increasing number of institutional investors are buying bitcoin, and this trend is unlikely to slow in 2026. A reduction in interest rates will give bitcoin additional upward momentum. If, however, events take an unpredictable turn, central banks will be unable to regulate the situation, and the resulting stress will be substantial, given bitcoin’s growing integration into the financial system," the report said.

Another potential "black swan" is an unexpected failure of stimulus measures in Germany, which, combined with a political impasse in France, could trigger capital outflows and a rise in the regional risk premium, where debt levels are already raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances.

A further serious risk to the global economy is the likelihood of a sharp escalation in attacks on vessels and the onset of a large-scale "tanker war." This, the report noted, would threaten major disruptions to supply chains with sharply negative consequences for global trade.

At the same time, the authors said that if a compromise on Ukraine is reached and agreements are secured with the US side, economic growth in Russia would significantly exceed forecasts. The United States could offer Russia a partnership in manufacturing industries, primarily in the processing of rare earth metals, a sector currently dominated by China, the authors emphasized.

According to the report, since the main deposits are located outside the United States, developing rare earth processing domestically is problematic from a logistical and profitability standpoint. Russia, given its resource base, is capable of rapidly creating processing capacities in which Washington has an interest. The capital intensity of such a project is high, and if it is approved, the potential inflow of external investment would provide a strong boost to GDP, the experts concluded.