MOSCOW, January 23. /TASS/. Coal exports from Russia in 2026 could amount to 190-195 mln tons in the event of unfavorable conditions on the global market, or reach 205-210 mln tons in a positive scenario, Alexander Kotov, a consulting partner at NEFT Research, told TASS.

In early 2026, the expert expects international prices to stabilize at current levels or to increase moderately due to seasonal factors.

Considering those emerging trends, NEFT Research has slightly increased its coal price forecast for 2026.

According to Kotov, the market could be supported by a reduction in supply from Australia due to weather conditions and Indonesia due to a planned reduction in production.

"We forecast exports of 205-210 mln tons if the scenario is favorable, as we expect price increases and a slight improvement in market conditions in 2026," he said.

Under unfavorable market conditions, Russia's export volume could be no more than 195 mln tons. "The export target for 2026 is 190-195 mln tons in the event of a negative scenario, poor foreign market conditions: for example, if China and India sharply increase their own production. Global coal prices will fall accordingly," Kotov noted.