MOSCOW, December 1. /TASS/. Russia’s retail lending market has completed its restructuring phase and is returning to a growth trajectory. According to VTB’s estimates, loan issuance in 2026 may reach 12.7 trillion rubles ($163.4 bln), which would exceed the forecasted volume for 2025 by 32%, the bank’s press service reported this, citing Aleksey Okhorzin, Senior Vice President and Head of VTB’s Retail Products Department.

"Retail lending has passed through a phase of ‘recovery’: in the second half of 2025 we expect an 11% increase in overall market sales compared with the second half of 2024. The results of next year will depend on macroeconomic factors: the pace of key rate reductions, updated parameters of the 'family' mortgage program, developments in the utilization fee, and the planned changes in borrower income assessment rules. However, the trend toward recovery in the retail lending market is unmistakable," Okhorzin said.

According to the bank’s estimates, in 2025 loans issued to individuals will total less than 10 trillion rubles (under $128.6 bln), which is one-quarter below the 2024 result. More than 60% of this volume will be generated by mortgages – 4.2 trillion rubles ($54.0 bln) – and car loans – 1.8 trillion rubles ($23.2 bln). Cash loans will account for approximately 3.6 trillion rubles ($46.3 bln).

VTB forecasts that the retail loan portfolio will grow by 4% in 2025, approaching 40.9 trillion rubles ($526.3 bln). The main driver of growth will be auto loans, whose portfolio is expected to expand by 18%.

In 2026, VTB experts predict positive issuance dynamics across most segments of the market: roughly 25% growth in mortgages, and 55% growth in cash loans. Auto loan issuance will be comparable to 2025 levels. Overall retail portfolio growth in 2026 is expected to reach 6%.