MOSCOW, November 13. /TASS/. Western sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil pose risks to the stability of global energy markets that extend far beyond Russia, according to the November report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA experts noted that restrictive measures targeting two key players in Russia’s oil industry are already causing operational disruptions and increasing market tensions. In particular, Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 field in Iraq (with a capacity of 480,000 barrels per day) after Iraqi authorities froze the company’s funds and halted its crude transfers. At the same time, the Bulgarian government has initiated the nationalization of Lukoil’s Burgas refinery. Considering the potential implications for Romania’s Petrotel refinery, these developments could further tighten conditions in Eastern European petroleum product markets.

Until additional details emerge regarding enforcement measures and potential circumvention routes, the IEA is maintaining their forecast for Russia’s crude oil production unchanged at 9.3 mln barrels per day, but noted a significant downside risk to the outlook.

The IEA also said that Russia’s oil industry continues to show an ability to adapt to sanctions pressure, noting that the country has shown the capacity to rapidly establish new oil-shipping companies and transport greater volumes through its shadow fleet. Future developments in Russian crude and refined product exports will depend on decisions by major buyers regarding compliance and supplier selection, the agency emphasized.