NOVOSIBIRSK, November 5. /TASS/. Imports of dairy products in Russia will drop by 9% as of the end of this year, driven by smaller consumption and the rise in inventories, said Artyom Belov, the General Director of the Soyuzmoloko national association of dairy producers.

"We forecast there will be a small decline in consumption growth. We are more or less balanced now but I think it will be zero, probably minus 1% year on year. Marketable milk production will nevertheless have an upside, about 2%. The decline in imports will be around 9%. This will make it possible to balance the situation in the market," Belov said.

Despite the positive trends of 2023-2024, including higher demand for ready dairy products and feedstock, the year of 2025 has become a transitional one, the expert said. The slowdown of products consumption growth rates and the dip in certain cases were driven in particular by slower income growth rate and the price hike for dairy products. The demand in the first quarter of this year fell by about 5%, the expert said. Consumption volumes reached the level comparable with last October only in October 2025.

In the meantime, incremental growth of marketable milk continued and reached about 2% year on year. "This entailed the current situation; a very serious increase in inventories for main milk consuming categories. Inventories of cheese, butter, cream and whole condensed milk increased very significantly on an annualized basis. A similar situation evolves in Belarus. The factor puts pressure on the market and influences the price adjustment," Belov noted. The accelerating decline in the headcount also affects the market, the general director said. Estates and farms face shortage of human resources, growth of salaries and monetary policy toughening and some of them switch to other businesses.

The situation will evolve the next year in dependence on monetary policy of the Central Bank, the ruble rate and growth of the real disposable household income, the association said.