MOSCOW, October 23. /TASS/. Russia’s oil production, including gas condensate, will increase by 4.8% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, reaching an average of 10.637 million barrels per day, according to the review "Oil and Gas. Change of Course: What to Expect from the Second Half of the Year?" prepared by Andrey Polishchuk, senior analyst at the Russian analytical company Euler.

"In the second half of 2025, we forecast oil production, including gas condensate, to increase by 4.8% year-on-year. In April, OPEC+ countries began lifting voluntary curbs totaling 2.2 million bpd, completing this process in September. The alliance will lift the remaining restrictions in October, and the increase in production will likely continue until September 2026. We forecast that in the second half of the year, total oil and gas condensate production in Russia will increase by an average of 322,000 bpd, to 10.637 million bpd," the review states.

Excluding gas condensate, Russia will increase production by 5.3%, or 322,000 bpd, to over 9.4 million bpd. Euler also noted that oil production (excluding condensate) in Russia fell by 2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2024, due to the country having to compensate for overproduction in previous months.

The review notes that September 2025 marked the final month of the two-year period of voluntary OPEC+ production cuts introduced in November 2023 (total cut of 2.2 million bpd, Russia's share of 471,000 bpd).

A new easing of production cuts will begin in October as part of the OPEC+ decision of April 2023 (total cut of 1.6 million bpd, Russia's share of 500,000 bpd), the review notes.