NOVOSIBIRSK, October 7. /TASS/. Russia’s oil production is expected to grow in 2026 and 2027 amid the easing of OPEC restrictions, with production increases projected as early as October and November 2025, said Irina Filimonova, Head of the Center for Economics of Subsoil Use of Oil and Gas of A.A. Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics.

"Starting this year, OPEC has agreed to gradually lift restrictions, so forecasts suggest Russia will increase production in October and November. Therefore, there are expectations for 2026-2027 that our production will gradually expand, partially because we, like OPEC countries, are supporting the trend of initially boosting production by lifting these quotas," she said at the all-Russian conference "Trofimuk Readings."

According to data cited by the industry expert, oil and gas condensate production in the country is expected to reach 516 million tons in 2025, 525 million tons in 2026, and 533 million tons in 2027.

"OPEC and Russia are key stabilizers of the oil market. The US did not join the OPEC+ deal, despite a proposal, and is constantly ramping up its production. This became possible thanks to a significant technological breakthrough," she said.

Filimonova added that the US example is quite instructive for Russia, as Russia also has hard-to-recover oil reserves, particularly the Bazhenov Shale and the Arctic.

She noted that the center's specialists forecast a 1.1% decline in primary oil refining in Russia in 2025, to 264 million tons. According to the expert’s report, primary refining was 267 million tons by the end of 2024, and is projected to reach 264 million tons by the end of 2025, with primary oil refining units operating at 78% capacity.

"Our refining has indeed begun to fall. This is due to several factors - firstly, the production cuts that occurred due to the OPEC+ reduction, and secondly, a large number of drone attacks. We see that not only is refining volume decreasing, but the level of capacity use is also declining," the expert explained.