MOSCOW, October 3. /TASS/. If Russian oil were to disappear from the global market, prices could soar beyond $200 per barrel, but such a scenario is unrealistic since Russia’s key oil consumers - China and India - remain interested in its energy resources, according to experts interviewed by TASS.

Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, did not rule out that a hypothetical, complete withdrawal of Russian oil from the global market could push prices above $200 per barrel and potentially trigger a worldwide economic crisis. "But this is an implausible scenario, because the key consumers of Russian oil (China and India) are strategic partners of Russia and are both politically and economically interested in our energy resources. Moreover, when negotiating new export contracts, Russian companies still retain a strong bargaining position - consumers actively compete for supply volumes," he noted.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the plenary session of the Valdai forum that the removal of Russian oil from the global market would lead to an immediate surge in prices, which would "skyrocket past $100."

Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil and gas analyst at Eiler, added that Russian producers have already fully reoriented oil and petroleum product exports toward stable supply routes to friendly countries. On average, Russia exports about 7.5 mln barrels of oil and petroleum products daily, accounting for more than 7% of global consumption and around 11% of global imports, the analyst specified. "Even the partial loss of Russian oil in the global balance could trigger sharp price spikes. Moreover, it should be taken into account that not all grades of oil are interchangeable, and reconfiguring refining processes could further drive up prices for petroleum products," he emphasized.

Igor Isaev, head of Mind Money Analytical Center, believes that the hypothetical complete disappearance of Russian oil from the global market would be a shock comparable to major geopolitical crises. According to the expert, if all Russian supplies - around 3.5 mln barrels per day - were to vanish from the market overnight, even a coordinated release of strategic reserves would be able to cover the deficit for only 20-25 days.

"In an already strained balance, this could trigger a price surge of $15-30 per barrel, especially during the winter months. Thus, while the market does possess mechanisms for short-term stabilization, they are incapable of fully compensating for the loss of one of the world’s largest exporters," he noted. Even a moderate reduction in Russian supplies could provoke disproportionately strong price reactions - figures that were quite adequately reflected in Vladimir Putin’s remarks at the Valdai Forum and, if anything, sounded rather conservative, Isaev added.