MOSCOW, September 29. /TASS/. Brent oil prices will remain within the range of $60-70 a barrel in 2025-2026 but the risk of a short-term decline to $50 per barrel has increased in the environment of anticipated growth of commercial oil inventories, the Russian Finance Ministry said in the draft guidelines of budgetary, fiscal and customs tariff policy for 2026 and the planned period of 2027 and 2028.

"The accelerated renunciation of restrictions on oil supplies by OPEC+ countries in 2025 will lead to exponential growth of oil production against demand growth and to oil surplus in the market, according to forecasts of key global agencies. The oil price in such conditions will for the first time since the 2020 COVID crisis become the factor limiting oil production in countries with high marginal costs," the ministry said. The Brent price, which declined in May by 18% against January amid concerns of economic growth slowdown due to trade uncertainty, secured itself at the level below $70 per barrel in June - August, mirroring expectations of oil surplus in the market," the ministry informed.

"The combination of factors of oil production volumes increase by OPEC+ countries and worsening of global economic prospects generates conditions, under which the probability of a rise in oil prices remain low. Brent blend oil prices are expected to be formed in the range of $60-70 per barrel in 2025-2026 but the risk increased for a short-term price drop to $50/barrel in the environment of expected growth of commercial oil inventories," the ministry said.

The long-term balance remains shifted towards lower prices in consequence of the expected demand contraction as the fleet of electric vehicles continues growing and the role of renewable energy sources in the global energy balance structure intensifies, the ministry added.