MOSCOW, September 11. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has upgraded its outlook on global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.7 mln barrels per day (mbd), bringing the figure to 105.8 mbd, according to the organization's report. The forecast for 2026 has been upgraded by 200,000 bpd, with the agency now expecting supply to grow by 2.1 mbd to 107.9 mbd.

Projections have been raised amid the decision by eight OPEC+ states made in September to increase oil production due to favorable market fundamentals - by 137,000 barrels per day (compared to September level).

Non-OPEC+ countries will increase supply by 1.4 mbd in 2025, and by 1 mbd in 2026, due to growth in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, the agency believes. OPEC+ will increase supplies by almost the same amount - by 1.3 mbd in 2025, and by 1 mbd in 2026.

Global oil supply increased by 20,000 bpd in August 2025 to a record 106.9 mbd amid OPEC+ decisions and non-OPEC+ countries’ production fluctuating around historical highs, the agency said.

Global oil production in August 2025 was 3 mbd higher than in August 2024, of which OPEC+ accounted for 1.7 mbd, the organization noted. OPEC+ countries continued to increase production, which rose by 80,000 bpd in one month, while supplies from non-OPEC+ states were 70,000 bpd lower as output in Canada, the US and Brazil fell slightly from July records, the IEA noted.