MOSCOW, July 23. /TASS/. Inventories of rough diamonds among cutters are stabilizing, global diamond supply is shrinking, and consumer demand for diamond jewelry is on the rise - these conditions could lead to a recovery in the diamond market over the next 12 to 18 months, according to Head of Equity Market Research at Alfa-Bank Boris Krasnozhenov.

"In this case, we are seeing the emergence of a long-term trend. As I mentioned, diamond inventories are now more or less balanced. There is an oversupply specifically in the polished diamond segment, meaning there are still many polished stones available. However, they will eventually be depleted, there is no endless supply of gems," he said, commenting on the raw diamond reserves held by cutters.

Krasnozhenov emphasized that the volume of rough diamonds on the market is no longer increasing, with the market rather is showing a downward trend. According to him, global diamond production once stood at 130 mln carats, then declined to 120 mln, and could now fall to as low as 100 mln carats, even as demand for diamond jewelry continues to grow. "I wouldn’t say the recovery will be immediate, but a 12-18-month timeframe is realistic," he added.

Kept partner Igor Korotetsky noted that the total volume of global rough diamond production in 2024 reached a historic low and is likely to remain at those levels, as proven reserves are being depleted, affecting the long-term availability of diamonds. "We’re seeing that most operating deposits may shut down within the next few decades. Looking ahead to 2030, we expect annual output to average below than 105-110 mln carats," he added.

According to Kept’s estimates, global diamond production totaled 108 mln carats in 2024, is expected to decline to 107 mln in 2025, and by 2030 is projected to reach around 108 mln carats.