MOSCOW, July 16. /TASS/. China is unlikely to abandon imports of Russian oil if the United States imposes secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian commodities, experts interviewed by TASS believe. In their view, US President Donald Trump’s statement regarding such tariffs is unlikely to impact the market or the discount on Russian oil before September.

"Given the already high level of tariffs in place and China’s overall geopolitical position, it will most likely seek to preserve as much of its current volume of Russian imports as possible," Director of Research at the Institute for Energy and Finance Alexey Belogoryev said.

Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam Group, also does not anticipate a reduction in China’s oil purchases. "In our view, China, which is already in a state of ongoing trade war with the United States, is unlikely to respond in any meaningful way to threats or sanctions from Washington," he noted.

However, Kaufman pointed out that for the vast majority of other buyers of Russian energy, trade relations with the US are either more important or equally important as imports of Russian hydrocarbons. "This means that if Trump’s threats go beyond rhetoric, exports of Russian oil and petroleum products could decline by double digits, and the discount could return to the levels seen at the end of 2022," he said.

Overall, Kaufman considers the introduction of tariffs unlikely. "Such harsh secondary sanctions still seem improbable, as evidenced by the relatively calm state of both the Russian stock market and the global oil market," he said. He added that in recent months investors have grown less responsive to Trump’s statements, as they often turn out to be bluffs. "In our view, the US’s sensitivity to oil price fluctuations further reduces the likelihood of harsh sanctions against Russia’s oil sector," Kaufman concluded.

Belogoryev likewise does not expect any immediate impact on the market from the potential tariffs. "In any case, I don’t believe there will be any market impact before September, including on freight rates or prices for Russian crude grades," he emphasized.

On July 14, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would impose import tariffs of approximately 100% on Russia and its trading partners if Moscow and Washington fail to reach an agreement on a settlement in Ukraine within 50 days.