MOSCOW, July 15. /TASS/. Economic activity indicators in April and May point to a resumption of Russia’s GDP growth in the Q2, according to a bulletin, prepared by the Research and Forecasting Department of the Bank of Russia.

"Following a decline from the peak level of Q4 2024 in Q1 2025, economic activity indicators in April-May signal a return to GDP growth in the second quarter. Data on industrial and consumer activity, lending, the labor market, and corporate defaults support this conclusion. Preliminary figures suggest that the economy could post a slight increase in Q2 relative to Q1," the report said.

Bank of Russia analysts highlight that the 1% seasonally adjusted industrial output growth in April-May compared to Q1 was mainly driven by accelerating expansion in the manufacturing sector, while the extractive industries recorded moderate growth amid the gradual easing of voluntary production restrictions under the OPEC+ framework.

At the same time, the department reported that labor market risks remain tilted toward pro-inflationary pressures. "The pace of real wage growth (up 0.5%, seasonally adjusted, in April) and consumers’ willingness to make large purchases remain high. However, some surveys and real-time indicators suggest a gradual stabilization, with signs of declining recruitment activity and a shift in expectations toward staff reductions," the experts said.

The conclusions and recommendations contained in the bulletin may not reflect the official position of the Bank of Russia.