IEA downgrades oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to lowest since 2009

Business & Economy July 11, 2025, 13:04

The forecast for 2026 has also been reduced by 20,000 bpd – to 720,000 bpd

MOSCOW, July 11. /TASS/. Global oil demand in 2025 will grow by only 700,000 barrels per day, which will be the lowest figure since 2009, excluding the COVID-19 year of 2020, according to the July report of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency downgraded its forecast for this year by 20,000 bpd.

The IEA stressed that the forecast for this year has been reduced due to lower-than-expected supply volumes to the market in the second quarter amid a significant decline in oil demand, especially in developing countries. The forecast for 2026 has also been reduced by 20,000 bpd – to 720,000 bpd.

World crude oil inventories jumped 73.9 mln barrels in May to 7.818 bln barrels, according to the IEA. Commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries increased by 44.5 mln, but were 54 mln barrels below the level of the previous year.

Preliminary data for June also showed that global oil inventories continued to grow, mainly in non-OECD countries.

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