MOSCOW, July 1. /TASS/. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies via the Strait of Hormuz will grow from about 84 mln metric tons (Qatar and the UAE) in 2024 to 157 mln metric tons in 2030, which will cover 28% of global market needs (the share was 21% in 2024), Implementa research company told TASS.

"Following the launch of new facilities, Qatargas NFE, Qatargas NFS and Ruwais LNG, their total shipments by 2030 may grow to 157 mln tons, which will cover up to 28% of global market demands that time. Since there are actually no alternative routes for such volumes, the value of the strait will only grow along with the scale of consequences of its potential closing," the company said.

In the opinion of experts, chances are low that Iran will actually block the strait. Implementa stressed that Iran did not materialize threats of strait closing either during the war between Iran and Iraq or during the period of recent escalation in the Middle East because of economic dependence on oil exports and the risk of further escalation. Nevertheless, even statements of the potential blockade alone affect energy prices.

"Even the news background about the potential risks of strait blocking became one of noticeable factors of gas prices growth in June. Considering current and prospective volumes of supplies, the actual closing would become an event for the gas market comparable with contraction of Russian pipeline export to Europe, and might well return the prices to record-high levels," Alexander Sinkin from Implementa said.

Experts said liquefied natural gas has become one of key factors of global energy security long since, experts said. Total LNG consumption was above 406 mln metric tons in 2024, standing at almost 60% of global trade in gas.