ST. PETERSBURG, June 24. /TASS Correspondent Ekaterina Andreeva/.The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) is a unique scientific institution that celebrates the 105th anniversary this year. This is exactly how long the institute has been working in the Arctic. In the Antarctic - for 69 years. The research infrastructures are three stations in the Arctic, five year-round and five seasonal stations in the Antarctic, two reinforced ice-class scientific expedition vessels, two unique scientific installations for more than 1,000 Arctic expeditions, 70 expeditions to the Antarctic, and others.

In an interview with TASS at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), the institute's Director and Chairman of the Scientific Council, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Makarov said about how the Arctic affects the Global South countries, about the next decade of the Northern Sea Route, and about how international cooperation is developing in the current geopolitical environment.

- Mr. Makarov, please tell us about AARI's participation in SPIEF. What projects and issues have you discussed?

- There are several events related to the Northern Sea Route. At a section on its 500th anniversary, we discussed the history as well as the current stage - where we are moving in matters of navigation development. We've discussed important and complex projects in Chukotka - distributed generation, including nuclear power. The range of problems is huge, plus the sanctions restrictions that have an impact.

In a situation like this, it is important to maintain a dialogue from an expert point of view. Businesses are looking for ways and opportunities for development. For our part, we, as the science, can say what opportunities there are, and - most importantly - what problems may arise.

- What are those problems?

- Ice. It's a key issue in cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route. We are confident that the ice in the Arctic will remain, thus we need to develop jointly navigation technologies and shipbuilding.

- Ice will remain. Is that good or bad? How the ice situation may affect navigation along the Northern Sea Route in the coming decades?

- Approximately every 10 years, there is a season where in the summer the Northern Sea Route water is completely free from ice. When we speak about summer in relation to the Arctic seas, it's 9-10 weeks. The remaining time - about 9 months a year - there will be a continuous ice sheet in the Arctic Ocean. On one hand, this is not so bad - it means that nature development does not follow a catastrophic scenario. On the other hand, we must take into account changes of previously regular natural conditions in development of shipping, projects, and the year-round navigation, especially when we speak about the Eastern direction.

Cooperation and dialogue with our counterparts at Atomflot and Glavsevmorput have been developing and expanding. We've been organizing interactive scientific groups, and we are ready to support 24/7 everything related to ice conditions, to climate and weather forecasts, and traditional recommendations. We need ice forecast when arranging the icebreaking fleet, when building ice-class vessels that could operate there year-round. In my opinion, the environmental component is extremely important, since this intensive development and work in the Arctic will influence the natural system.

We have prepared an environmental monitoring program along the sea route to monitor continuously what happens in the Northern Sea Route waters and to prevent unfavorable situations. We hope the program will be implemented in the near future, and we hope for support from the government. The environmental monitoring program will not hinder the Northern Sea Route development. It will rather complement it, allowing for close environmental monitoring.

Ice within the next 10 years will globally remain in approximately current parameters. One year, there may be a little more ice, and another year there may be a little less. The main thing here is to control the process and to build up the monitoring.

We have been upgrading the North forecast system - three institutes have been involved in it. Together with Rosatom, we continue huge work to consolidate information resources and management competencies, including in building icebreakers. For our part, we provide forecasts about how ice will behave in the near future.

- You have mentioned the importance of involving businesses in creating a permafrost monitoring system. Have you made it clear to SPIEF participants? Why that system is important?

- When talking about permafrost monitoring, we mean land and the State System of Permafrost Background Monitoring. This is a separate huge block of work for our specialists. We have been working on creating this system. The first stage has been completed, we have launched 78 of 140 observation points in the unified network. We already receive and process data from these observation points.

Of course, additional geotechnical monitoring is important for businesses, big enterprises, and linear facilities like railways, power lines, and pipelines. We need to monitor how these objects behave on the permafrost in comparison with background measurements that we take, the permafrost and climate change, and how they change comparatively in area where those objects are located. Here, I would refer to the experience of Norilsk Nickel. They have built their own permafrost monitoring system and are happy to contact and to exchange experience. Unfortunately, not all businesses adhere to policy of the kind.

- Do you mean it would be logical to involve in creation of such systems the companies that possess this equipment?

- The creation of such systems is important first of all for companies. Risks associated with possible infrastructure destruction may be cut by using low-cost methods to monitor, observe permafrost. We are happy to provide support and share our experience. The institute has organized a permafrost monitoring center that accumulates best competencies and where we have a team of professionals.

- Do you plan to address such companies or to promote the idea? How can you make them become aware of it?

- It's about an integrated approach. The more open we are, the sooner we will get a positive result. This is a big state-level task. The fundamental thing is to make sure the quality of life there is not getting worse.

- How would you comment on the current level of international cooperation in the Arctic and Antarctic? Is there any interaction with foreign counterparts?

- Interaction does exist, but interaction in the Arctic is very different from that in the Antarctic. The Antarctic is no one's land, there are no borders, no jurisdictions, and we all work there under the Antarctic Treaty. There, of course, it is much easier to implement projects. We live there next to foreign neighbors - Asian, European, and Latin American — everything's much easier.

As for the Arctic, it's more complicated there, because regular classical partners have put our cooperation on hold. We however continue cooperating with Asian partners, with the BRICS countries, to work on scientific projects jointly. I am absolutely convinced that real breakthrough scientific results may be achieved only through international cooperation.

Working in the Arctic is very difficult, hard and expensive. Scientific coalitions are beneficial for everyone: some have equipment, some have infrastructures, others have financial resources, or people. This is necessarily "enforced" by the participation of young people from all involved parties. No matter what ambitious plans we have or what tasks we set, there's no meeting them without the younger generation.

Our young scientists have excellent prospects. We have launched large-scale projects aimed at building up national interests in the Arctic, interesting for ambitious young people. Take, for example, the ice-resistant platform that will work for 35-40 years, or the permafrost monitoring project designed for years to come. It's a very interesting way of life, unusual. This is important for young people.

- As for Asian partners, is it China that's mainly interested in the Arctic?

- China, India, Indonesia. Late last year, the United Arab Emirates announced they were also launching their polar program. Turkey has been working actively. This is a global process. Just imagine, where the Arctic is and where the Philippines, Indonesia or Malaysia are. But changes in climate and atmospheric circulation in the Arctic affect the Arctic regions as well as the southern latitudes, namely monsoons in Asia.

These winds consequently affect crops. Climate change in the Arctic is a truly global issue, and we are studying the process from different angles. It is important to our Asian colleagues how it will affect the crops, and to us - how it will affect the amount of ice, infrastructures, permafrost, and the environment. Absolutely clearly, the climate change process in the Arctic affects everyone, it is truly global. This is not an exaggeration, or a figure of speech.

- Do you have any interaction with them on this issue?

- Sure, we constantly communicate with the Chinese and Indian counterparts, and our scientific bases in the Antarctic are located next to each other. Last year, we conducted a large expedition around the Antarctic together with Brazilian counterparts, where participated South Africa, Peru, Chile, China, and India.

We've met with counterparts from Brazil recently and talked in detail about possible development of our contacts. Their polar program was focused on the Antarctic, but they, at the official level now, have announced that part of funding, some 20% of funds allocated for polar research, will be used for the Arctic. This is another opportunity for cooperation, collaboration and joint work in the Arctic, among other things.

- This year's decision was to revive and upgrade the Russian station in the Antarctic. Do you have any other plans to develop stations? Is their number sufficient for now? Do we need to open new ones?

- Opinions differ. Russia's got 10 stations in the Antarctic, where five stations are year-round and the other five are seasonal stations. The Russkaya station is currently seasonal, and we haven't opened any other stations after it. My view is we need to work year-round. Russkaya is a most inaccessible place in the Antarctic. It is often referred to as the pole of winds. The wind speed may reach 75 m/s. Only we have been there. Noteworthy, China has announced plans to build a station there. However, that's just the intention. It seems to me, we need to develop the Russian presence in the Antarctic and, perhaps, rethink it - in line with the reality.