MOSCOW, May 12. /TASS/. Global demand for oil and gas will continue to grow, and by 2050, these resources will account for approximately one-third and over one-quarter of the global energy mix, respectively, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in his article for Energy Policy journal. Novak emphasized that the peak demand for these energy sources has not yet been reached, and did not rule out the possibility that it may happen only after 2050.

"Oil and gas will still represent a dominant share in the overall structure of the global energy balance by 2050, with their respective contributions amounting to 33.2% and 26% (compared to 36.9% and 26.1% in 2023). Relative to 2023, global demand for oil is projected to increase by 12% by 2050 (from 102 mln barrels per day to 114 mln barrels per day), while demand for gas is expected to rise by 24% (from 4.1 trillion cubic meters to 5.1 trillion cubic meters)," he wrote.

According to Novak, the growth rate of global demand for gas will lag only behind the pace of development of renewable energy sources. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) will play a significant role in global gas trade due to its flexible logistics. "By 2050, the total capacity of LNG plants announced for construction could approach 1 bln tons, more than doubling, and consequently competition in the global LNG market will increase," he said.

"At the same time, we can assert that the peak in demand for gas and oil has not yet been reached. It is possible that this point will lie beyond 2050," Novak stressed.

He noted that the share of renewable energy sources in the global energy mix is projected to increase from 2.5% in 2023 to 10% by 2050 under the balanced scenario, but renewable energy sources will not be able to fully meet the world’s energy demand.

Global demand for coal is expected to gradually decline, yet coal will remain in demand, primarily in Asian and African countries. "Moreover, Western nations are also revisiting their strategies for the coal sector. For instance, the United States has announced a revival of the coal industry, introducing a moratorium on the closure of coal mines and allocating public funds to finance loan programs for the development and implementation of new coal technologies. Metallurgical grades of coal are expected to see the highest global demand, and the peak in coal consumption may shift to the 2030s or even later," Novak wrote.