MOSCOW, May 7. /TASS/. Oil prices may temporarily rise if the escalation between India and Pakistan remains local, but a full-scale crisis will lead to a decline in oil value in the medium term, Dmitry Kasatkin, partner of Kasatkin Consulting, said in an interview with TASS.

"One or another development of the conflict may entail absolutely diametrically opposite consequences for the oil market. For example, if the conflict remains in the local phase, then most likely we will see a short-term increase in prices (due to an increase in logistical risks and an emotional reaction in the futures market). In case of a full-scale conflict, a medium-term decrease in prices is possible - due to the fact that India, as the largest importer, will face a decrease in production and the loss of individual infrastructure facilities (such as refineries and pipelines)," he said.

Relations between India and Pakistan got strained after the April 22 terror attack in the popular tourist town of Pahalgam (Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir), which killed 25 Indians and one Nepali. India said it had evidence that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was involved in the attack, which was carried out by the Lashkar-e-Taiba group (banned in Russia). New Delhi and Islamabad have imposed mutual restrictions on diplomatic personnel, suspended bilateral agreements and closed their airspace for each other's flights. Both sides have reported exchanges of fire across the Line of Control and that their retaliatory actions.

On the night of May 7, the Indian Armed Forces carried out Operation Sindoor, striking nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir where terrorists were based. According to NDTV sources, more than 70 terrorists were killed and over 60 were injured. According to the Pakistani Armed Forces, 26 people were killed and 46 were injured. Pakistan closed its airspace for 48 hours and carried out retaliatory strikes. As a result, 10 people were killed and 48 were injured on the Line of Control in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, Reuters reported.