MOSCOW, March 14. /TASS/. Global prices for Brent oil are likely to continue decreasing this year, though according to revised estimates, they will average $70-75 per barrel, experts interviewed by TASS believe. That said, prices for Russian export Urals oil may reach $60 per barrel or slightly higher.

Alexey Belogoryev, research director at the Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, foresees the most notable decrease in oil prices in the fall and winter due to a surplus in the market, whereas in the second quarter, the price of Brent crude is projected to be close to the current level, fluctuating at $68-72 per barrel. "The general trend of lowering global prices persists. The main decline will be seen in the fall and winter due to an inevitable surplus of supply. The boldest forecasts suggest that prices may drop to $50 by the end of the year, though I would speak about the $60-66 range for now. In any case, the estimates of the average annual price of Brent are worsening, and I see it so far at around $70," he said.

Uncertainty regarding US policy, potential trade wars, the risk of a recession in the US, as well as the lack of clarity on the future sanctions line regarding oil exports from Russia and Iran, have disturbed market expectations, the expert noted. Discounts on Russia’s Urals FOB oil to Brent will remain at $10-13 per barrel for some time, though their future dynamics strongly depend on potential changes in the US sanctions policy, Belogoryev added.

Finam’s Nikolay Dudchenko expects the average price of Brent crude oil at around $74-75 per barrel in 2025. "Our projection has been revised downward from $76-77 expected earlier due to a statement by OPEC+ on the intention to release additional volumes to the market. It is not ruled out that in the second quarter, the price of Brent oil will be in the range of $72-73 per barrel," he said.

The situation in global commodities markets may be boosted by a variety of factors, Dudchenko noted. "First is the US’ pressure on Iran and Venezuela. Second is the situation in the Middle East, which is still far from resolution, meaning that the geopolitical premium may return to the oil price," he said.

Finam does not rule out that the price of Urals oil will average $61-64 per barrel this year.