MOSCOW, March 4. /TASS/. The global oil market is expected to shift toward a supply surplus despite the intervention of OPEC+, driven by rising oil production in non-OPEC+ countries, moderate economic growth in China, and the trade war policies of US President Donald Trump, stock market analyst at BCS World of Investments Lyudmila Rokotyanskaya told TASS.

Earlier, eight OPEC+ nations, which have been voluntarily cutting oil production by 2.2 mln barrels per day since early 2024, decided to uphold their planned gradual production recovery starting in April. As a result, these countries could see an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day in April. Following the OPEC+ decision, Brent crude oil prices declined by nearly $3 per barrel, slipping below $71 per barrel on Tuesday, marking their lowest level since December 9, 2024.

Rokotyanskaya highlighted that leading analytical groups anticipate a weaker oil market over the next two years. "Even independent of OPEC+ policy decisions, the global supply-demand balance is expected to tip toward a surplus. This is primarily due to rising production in non-OPEC+ countries and the prospect of a more subdued Chinese economic expansion. OPEC+’s decision to gradually restore supply volumes further amplifies global output," she explained.

The analyst also pointed out that the global economy and energy demand could be adversely impacted by Trump’s trade war with China. However, she emphasized that OPEC+ has consistently expressed its readiness to adapt policy based on market conditions. "Currently, Brent futures are testing last year’s lows and appear technically oversold. In the short term, prices may even dip below $70 per barrel, but I anticipate a rebound. Nonetheless, over the course of the year, the risk of Brent falling to $60 per barrel remains a possibility," Rokotyanskaya added.

Meanwhile, partner at Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin underscored that OPEC+ formulates its decisions based on fundamental market factors. According to him, China’s manufacturing growth and expectations of a seasonal surge in demand toward summer are currently the primary market drivers. At the same time, he acknowledged that geopolitical tensions and rising production outside of OPEC+ pose risks to oil prices.

"Should prices experience a significant and prolonged decline, OPEC+ policy could be adjusted accordingly. Nevertheless, the decision to ramp up production from April is timely and aligns with the interests of the member states," Kasatkin concluded.